Kenyan researchers have developed a simple formula enabling farmers to measure carbon in fruit trees, boosting climate action, incomes and fair participation in fast-growing carbon credit markets nationwide across Kenya.
Farmers in Kenya can now calculate the amount of carbon stored in their fruit trees and potentially earn income from carbon trading thanks to a new scientific formula developed by local and international researchers.
The formula was developed under the EES at the University, in partnership with the World Agroforestry Centre, also known as ICRAF.
Using a method known as allometric equations, farmers measure the diameter of a fruit tree to estimate its biomass and then calculate how much carbon the tree stores. The approach removes the need to cut down trees, which was previously the standard method for measuring carbon content.
The project focuses mainly on avocado and mango trees, which are the most widely grown fruit trees among Kenyan farmers practicing agroforestry.
According to researchers, the innovation allows farmers to understand their role in climate change mitigation while continuing to earn a livelihood from their land. It also strengthens their ability to negotiate fair compensation in the fast-growing carbon credit market.
Carbon sequestration has traditionally been associated with forests. However, rising human populations and deforestation have reduced forest cover, prompting scientists to explore alternatives.
“Forests are the main carbon sinks, but with increasing pressure on forest land, we needed another solution,” said Shem Kuyah, the researcher behind the formula and a lecturer in the agroforestry department at JKUAT. “Farmlands provided an opportunity through agroforestry.”
Kuyah said one of the project’s primary goals is to train farmers and raise awareness about the importance of tree planting for climate regulation.
“Farmers depend on their land for income, so we had to promote trees that make economic sense,” he said. “We found mangoes and avocados were the most common and preferred species.”
The project offers farmers an added incentive beyond fruit production by linking tree planting to carbon credits. Carbon credits are tradable certificates representing one metric ton of carbon dioxide or equivalent greenhouse gas removed or reduced from the atmosphere. High-emitting companies and governments buy credits to offset emissions by supporting projects such as reforestation and renewable energy, which also deliver social and environmental benefits.
Kuyah said the research produced two formulas: a general one applicable to all tree species and a species-specific one designed for fruit trees. The fruit tree formula is far more accurate, with a margin of error of about five percent compared with up to 40 percent for the general method.
Because the method does not require trees to be cut down, it encourages farmers to plant more fruit trees, which supports both climate mitigation and household income through carbon trading.
The initiative comes amid renewed global focus on carbon markets following the COP30 climate summit, where countries agreed to fully operationalize the Paris Agreement Crediting Mechanism. The mechanism governs international carbon markets and aims to mobilize climate finance.
Ten years after the 2015 Paris Agreement, which sought to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius and achieve net zero emissions by mid-century, many countries remain off track. The World Meteorological Society says global carbon emissions will reach record levels in 2024 and funding climate action continues to be a major challenge.
At COP30, a Coalition to Grow Carbon Markets launched in September by Singapore, the United Kingdom and Kenya gained endorsements from 11 countries. The coalition aims to standardize carbon markets and attract more funding while ensuring safeguards for businesses and communities.
Kenya formally joined the carbon credit trade in 2023, but concerns have emerged. Some farmers and landowners have complained of exploitation and poor compensation.
A recent documentary titled Carbon Contract by a Kenyan media outlet reported that residents in northeastern Kenya received only 20 percent of carbon revenues from land leased for offset projects lasting up to 30 years. Locals cited a lack of transparency in the agreements.
The fruit tree carbon project seeks to address such concerns by training farmer Savings and Credit Cooperative Organizations and agricultural extension officers on how to calculate carbon stored in trees and understand carbon trading systems.
“Our formula gives farmers knowledge and bargaining power,” Kuyah said. “With a simple tape measure and calculator, they can know the carbon value of their trees before entering into any agreement.”
JKUAT and ICRAF have already provided farmers with an Excel-based tool to perform the calculations. An application is also being developed that will automatically generate carbon values once a farmer inputs the tree species and diameter.
Kuyah said the initiative combines climate action with education and public participation and could become a model for community-based solutions as nations search for practical outcomes following COP30.
