A new UN report warns global temperatures are likely to remain at record levels through 2030, increasing the risk of breaching key climate targets and intensifying extreme weather impacts worldwide.
The United Nations has warned that global temperatures are likely to remain at record or near-record highs between 2026 and 2030, underscoring growing concerns over accelerating climate change and its worldwide impacts.
The warning came in a report released Thursday by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the UN agency responsible for weather, climate and water monitoring, AFP reported.
According to the report, the 11 years since 2015 have been the warmest ever recorded and the trend is expected to continue. There is also a possibility that a new annual temperature record could be set before 2031.
The WMO forecast indicates a 75 percent chance that the average global temperature over the five-year period from 2026 to 2030 will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels measured between 1850 and 1900. During the same period, there is an 86 percent likelihood that at least one year will surpass the record warmth registered in 2024 and become the hottest year on record.
The agency said global average temperatures during 2026-2030 are expected to range between 1.3 and 1.9 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. It also estimated a 91 percent probability that at least one year within the period will temporarily exceed the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold.
Leon Hermanson, a climate prediction expert at the WMO, said there is a possibility that El Niño conditions could develop toward the end of 2026, potentially making 2027 a new record-breaking year for global heat.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon linked to unusually warm waters in the Pacific Ocean. It can trigger significant changes in weather patterns, air pressure and rainfall across the globe. The phenomenon typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts between nine and 12 months.
The report noted that while the Paris climate agreement aims to keep global warming well below 2 degrees Celsius and ideally within 1.5 degrees Celsius, temporary breaches of the lower threshold are becoming increasingly likely. However, it stressed that the opportunity to meet long-term warming targets has not yet been completely lost.
The WMO also warned that Arctic regions could experience winter temperatures around 2.8 degrees Celsius above normal over the next five years.
In addition, the report highlighted the likelihood of above-average rainfall in the African Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and Siberia, while drought conditions may intensify across the Amazon region during the same period.
