Pakistan cautions that India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty risks water security, agriculture and wetlands, as arbitration continues without New Delhi amid escalating legal, climate and regional security tensions.
Pakistan has raised renewed concerns over India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), warning that unilateral actions could threaten water security, agriculture, and livelihoods for millions while deepening regional tensions over one of the world’s most enduring transboundary water-sharing agreements.
The warning comes as a dispute between the two nuclear-armed neighbours intensifies following India’s refusal to recognise arbitration proceedings underway at The Hague. The issue has also drawn attention during World Wetlands Day, with Pakistani leaders linking treaty stability to climate resilience and ecosystem protection.
Researchers argue that unilateral water policies often generate far greater economic losses than the political and financial investments required to sustain cooperative treaty frameworks. Activists say while negotiating and maintaining transboundary agreements requires significant diplomatic effort, these costs are considerably lower than the long-term economic, environmental, and social consequences of water conflicts and governance failures.
Arbitration Dispute Deepens
The Court of Arbitration (CoA) under the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty recently directed India to submit operational pondage logbooks from the Baglihar and Kishanganga hydroelectric projects as part of the second phase of hearings examining project design and water storage calculations. The tribunal scheduled hearings for February 2 and 3 at the Peace Palace in The Hague.
India has declined to participate, maintaining that the arbitration body has been improperly constituted. Indian government sources said New Delhi does not recognise the court’s legitimacy and therefore will not respond to its communications.
India has also rejected the International Court of Arbitration’s supplemental award related to the Kishanganga and Ratle hydroelectric projects in Jammu and Kashmir. In a statement, India’s Ministry of External Affairs said that since the Indus Waters Treaty has been placed in abeyance, “India is no longer bound to perform any of its obligations under the Treaty.”
“No Court of Arbitration, much less this illegally constituted arbitral body which has no existence in the eye of law, has the jurisdiction to examine the legality of India’s actions in exercise of its rights as a sovereign,” the ministry said.
New Delhi argues that the dispute concerns technical project specifications that fall within the jurisdiction of a neutral expert mechanism under the treaty rather than international arbitration. India has also linked broader treaty cooperation to security concerns, citing cross-border militancy.
Pakistan maintains that the disagreements involve legal interpretations of treaty provisions and therefore fall within the Court of Arbitration’s authority. Pakistani officials have urged India to comply with treaty mechanisms and participate in dispute resolution processes.
Treaty Placed in Abeyance
The current standoff follows India’s decision in April 2025 to place the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance after a militant attack in Pahalgam that killed 26 civilians. India blamed Pakistan-linked militant groups for the attack and stated that water cooperation could not continue amid what it described as ongoing security threats.
Pakistan has rejected the allegations and protested India’s move, arguing that the treaty does not permit unilateral suspension. Islamabad has raised the issue at international forums, approached the United Nations and initiated multiple legal proceedings seeking enforcement of treaty provisions.
A Pillar of Regional Water Cooperation
Brokered by the World Bank and signed in 1960, the Indus Waters Treaty regulates the sharing of waters from six rivers of the Indus basin. Under the agreement, India controls the eastern rivers Ravi, Beas and Sutlej, while Pakistan receives the majority of water from the western rivers Indus, Jhelum and Chenab, while allowing limited Indian usage for hydropower and irrigation.
Despite wars and prolonged diplomatic tensions, the treaty has historically survived as a rare example of sustained cooperation between the two countries.
Agriculture and Livelihood Concerns
Pakistan relies heavily on the Indus river system for irrigation, drinking water and energy production. Experts estimate that nearly 80 to 90 percent of the country’s agriculture depends on these waters. Limited water storage capacity further increases vulnerability to fluctuations in river flow.
Experts warn that uncertainty surrounding treaty implementation could intensify water shortages, particularly for small-scale farmers who depend on predictable irrigation systems. Uneven water distribution and outdated irrigation infrastructure are also contributing to rising economic pressures in rural communities.
Speaking at a United Nations Security Council session, Pakistan’s UN Ambassador Asim Iftikhar Ahmad described India’s treaty suspension as a development with humanitarian, environmental and regional security implications for Pakistan’s population.
Wetlands and Climate Resilience Under Pressure
Pakistani leaders have also highlighted environmental risks associated with disruptions to river flows. Former President Asif Ali Zardari emphasised that wetlands across Pakistan, from northern alpine lakes to southern mangrove ecosystems, play a crucial role in protecting communities from floods, droughts and extreme heat.
Environmental experts warn that reduced freshwater inflows are worsening ecological stress in the Indus Delta, where salinity intrusion and coastal erosion threaten fisheries and coastal livelihoods. Inland wetlands such as Keenjhar, Haleji and Manchar lakes are also facing declining water quality and increased pollution concentration due to reduced freshwater flows.
Climate specialists note that stable transboundary river management is essential for sustaining biodiversity, maintaining wetland ecosystems and strengthening climate adaptation efforts in vulnerable regions.
Arbitration Moves Forward Without India
Despite India’s objections, the Court of Arbitration has stated that India’s decision to place the treaty in abeyance does not affect the tribunal’s authority to continue proceedings. The court has indicated that if India fails to provide requested project data, it may draw conclusions based on available evidence or submissions provided by Pakistan.
Diplomatic observers say the dispute reflects widening strategic tensions between the two countries. While Pakistan is seeking international legal intervention to preserve treaty frameworks, India appears focused on limiting the dispute to technical channels and linking broader cooperation to security considerations.
Global Economic and Water Governance Implications
Economic experts and environmental policymakers are increasingly warning about the financial consequences of non-cooperation in transboundary water management. According to research led by Ashok Swain and Sajid Karim under the Oxfam-managed Transboundary Rivers of South Asia (TROSA) programme, the absence of collaborative water governance in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna basin results in an estimated annual economic loss of $14.2 billion.
Similarly, a major study titled Rethinking Water in Central Asia, conducted by Benjamin Pohl, Iskandar Abdullaev and researchers from the adelphi think tank, found that inadequate regional cooperation leads to economic losses of approximately $4.5 billion annually across Central Asian countries.
Sohanur Rahman, Executive Coordinator of YouthNet Global, emphasised the urgency of strengthening regional water diplomacy to address climate risks.
“Transboundary river cooperation is no longer only about water sharing; it is central to climate survival, regional peace and sustainable development. Climate change is intensifying floods, droughts and displacement across South Asia, and without cooperative water governance, countries risk multiplying humanitarian and economic crises.
“Investing in collaborative river basin management is far less costly than responding to climate-driven disasters and conflict,” he said.
Uncertain Future for Regional Hydrodiplomacy
The dispute has drawn international attention as the Indus Waters Treaty is widely viewed as a model for managing shared water resources in politically sensitive regions. Analysts warn that prolonged uncertainty could weaken global confidence in cross-border water agreements, particularly in regions already facing climate-driven water stress.
With arbitration proceedings continuing without India’s participation, the dispute risks creating parallel legal and technical processes with uncertain prospects for a mutually binding resolution. Experts suggest that sustained diplomatic engagement or third-party facilitation may eventually be required to stabilise regional water cooperation.
