Rising heat, erratic storms and shifting pre-monsoon patterns are emerging as a decisive force in India’s elections, influencing voter turnout, health risks and the logistics of polling across states.
As nearly 174 million voters head to the polls across five Indian states this April, an increasingly decisive factor is shaping the democratic exercise: climate.
The Assembly elections in West Bengal, Kerala, Assam, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry will span 824 constituencies, supported by more than 219,000 polling stations and over 2.5 million election officials. But alongside the vast logistical scale, authorities are confronting intensifying heat, humidity and violent pre-monsoon storms that could influence turnout and disrupt voting.
The changing weather patterns are emerging as a quiet but consequential force, with the potential to affect both participation and the mechanics of polling.
A season no longer predictable
April traditionally marks India’s transition into the pre-monsoon period, with rising heat occasionally interrupted by storms. In recent years, that pattern has shifted.
Data from the India Meteorological Department show April temperatures over the past five years have remained consistently above normal, with April 2022 ranking among the warmest on record at 1.36 degrees Celsius above average. Rainfall has also become erratic, with deficits one year and excess the next, alongside a rise in thunderstorms and lightning.
For election-bound states, this volatility translates into concrete risks, including overheated voters, flooded roads, disrupted polling stations and mounting pressure on administrative systems.
Storms in the east, heat in the south
Forecasts highlight stark regional contrasts. The IMD predicts widespread rainfall and thundershowers in West Bengal and Assam in the days ahead of polling. These storms, often accompanied by lightning, can damage infrastructure, disrupt transport and deter voters, particularly in rural and flood-prone areas.
In eastern and northeastern regions, such pre-monsoon storms, locally known as Nor’westers or Kalbaisakhi, are short-lived but intense and capable of causing significant damage.
Further south, Tamil Nadu and Kerala are bracing for oppressive heat combined with high humidity. These conditions increase the risk of dangerous wet-bulb temperatures, where the human body struggles to cool itself, raising the likelihood of heat exhaustion and heatstroke.
Along the eastern coast, including parts of West Bengal and Tamil Nadu, above-normal heatwave days are also expected, adding further strain to the electoral process.
Climate pressures on democracy
Experts warn that such conditions are no longer anomalies but part of a broader climate trend.
“Evolving climate conditions could directly impact elections in several ways,” said Mahesh Palawat of Skymet Weather. “Reduced turnout due to discomfort, heightened health risks for voters and polling personnel and operational disruptions caused by extreme weather events are all real concerns.”
Over the past five years, April weather has become increasingly unpredictable, with temperatures consistently above normal and rainfall swinging sharply, about 20 percent below normal in 2024, above normal in 2023 and uneven across regions in 2025.
The human toll has also risen. Government data show increasing deaths linked to natural events, with lightning now the single largest cause among weather-related fatalities, surpassing heat and flooding.
Adapting the electoral system
India’s election authorities have begun adjusting to the new reality.
The Election Commission of India has expanded early voting hours, typically from 7 am to early evening, allowing voters to avoid peak heat. Real-time polling station tracking aims to reduce crowding, while home voting provisions have been extended to certain vulnerable groups.
“These measures aim to prevent climate conditions from hindering participation,” said O. P. Rawat, a former chief election commissioner.
He also raised concerns about the environmental footprint of elections themselves.
“There is a large use of flexes and plastic materials during rallies and public meetings. There is also a lot of fuel consumption during election campaigning. These things need to be curbed,” he said, noting that restrictions such as requiring permission for motorcycle rallies are already in place.
Rawat added that broader reforms, including the proposed “one nation one poll” system, which could take effect by 2034, might help reduce environmental impacts. He suggested elections could be scheduled during November, December or January, taking into account parliamentary sessions, examinations and weather conditions.
A deeper climate shift
Underlying the immediate challenges is a long-term transformation in India’s climate system.
Recent research shows pre-monsoon rainfall patterns have intensified and shifted over the past three decades, partly driven by warming in the Indian Ocean. Rising sea surface temperatures have increased atmospheric moisture and altered convection patterns, making storms more frequent and in some cases more severe.
“The Indian Ocean has warmed faster than any other tropical basin,” said Roxy Mathew Koll of the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology. “This is fundamentally changing how pre-monsoon weather behaves.”
The result is a more unstable climate baseline, with expanding heatwaves, unpredictable rainfall and more frequent extreme events.
An evolving electoral reality
While the act of voting remains unchanged, the conditions under which it takes place are shifting rapidly.
The question now facing authorities is whether climate preparedness should be treated as central rather than peripheral to election planning.
What is increasingly clear is that climate change is no longer a distant backdrop to elections. It is an active force reshaping when, how and under what conditions citizens cast their votes.
This post is republished from NDTV.
