With the 1996 Ganges Water Sharing Treaty expiring in 2026, anxiety is rising in Bangladesh’s drought-hit Barind region over dry-season shortages, stalled renewal talks and climate stress, threatening agriculture, groundwater, ecosystems and the livelihoods of millions dependent on the river.
Millions of people in Bangladesh’s drought-prone Barind region face growing uncertainty as the 1996 Ganges Water Sharing Treaty with India approaches expiry in 2026, raising concerns over dry-season water availability, food security and rural livelihoods.
Signed on December 12, 1996, the 30-year treaty was designed to ensure equitable sharing of Ganges water at the Farakka Barrage, based on river flow during the critical dry months. With just one season remaining under the agreement, no joint mechanism has yet been formed to negotiate its renewal or replacement.
Water experts warn that the treaty’s flow-dependent formula has consistently disadvantaged Bangladesh during lean periods, when upstream flows decline and downstream demand peaks. While officials from the Joint Rivers Commission (JRC) say the framework has largely been followed over the past 29 years, independent assessments indicate Bangladesh has frequently received less water than required during crucial agricultural months.
“The flow at Farakka is sometimes lower than the historical average,” said Professor Ataur Rahman, a JRC expert, adding that upstream storage, diversion and withdrawal were not adequately addressed in the original agreement. He urged Bangladesh to begin technical and diplomatic preparations for a revised treaty.
Bangladesh recently became the 56th party to the UN convention on the protection and use of transboundary waters, committing to principles of equitable sharing, transparency and disaster preparedness. Adviser Rizwana Hasan has stressed that both upper- and lower-riparian countries must adhere to international norms of water justice.
Despite repeated meetings, negotiations have made little headway. Records show the 85th to 88th meetings of the Joint Committee on Sharing of the Ganga/Ganges Water at Farakka were held between November 2024 and September 2025 in Dhaka, Kolkata and New Delhi, but failed to produce concrete progress on treaty renewal.
Foreign ministry sources say the issue was raised during a 2024 meeting between the two prime ministers, with a proposal to form a review committee, though neither side has formally constituted it.
Concerns have intensified amid reports that India may seek to withdraw an additional 30,000 to 35,000 cubic feet per second of water from March to May to support agriculture, power generation and river management under climate stress. Bangladeshi experts warn such a move could significantly worsen water shortages in the southwest, where desertification is already affecting crops, fisheries and biodiversity.
The uncertainty comes against a complex political backdrop in Dhaka, following the fall of the Awami League government and the formation of an interim administration led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus. Despite strained relations, water-related dialogue between the neighbours continues.
Bangladesh and India share 54 transboundary rivers, but the Ganges remains the only one governed by a formal water-sharing treaty. A long-discussed agreement on the Teesta River remains stalled, largely due to objections from India’s West Bengal state.
“The Ganges treaty is not just a technical document, it is a lifeline for millions in water-scarce regions,” said Sohanur Rahman, executive coordinator of YouthNet Global. “Bangladesh cannot afford to wait until the last moment.”
Climate change is already deepening Barind’s crisis. The region receives about 40 percent less rainfall than other parts of the country and has experienced increasingly erratic precipitation over the past decade. More than 2,500 deep tube-wells support water-intensive rice farming, accelerating groundwater depletion.
As water tables fall, farmers are shifting from rice to mango orchards, while landless workers migrate to cities in search of construction and transport jobs. NGOs are promoting adaptive measures such as rainwater harvesting, vegetable farming and small-scale livestock rearing.
“Regional cooperation is essential,” said JRC member Md Anwar Kadir. “Without mutual engagement and basin-wide management, both countries risk economic and social losses that could be avoided.”
Experts say establishing a negotiation committee, revisiting water-sharing formulas and adopting an integrated basin-wide approach are now critical to safeguarding water security, agriculture and climate resilience in one of Bangladesh’s most vulnerable regions.
