New IIED analysis shows climate change could triple countries facing severe hunger under 2°C warming, with poorest nations hardest hit, worsening inequality, malnutrition, instability and global food price shocks risks.
A global hunger crisis could surge dramatically if temperatures rise by 2°C, with the number of countries facing critical food insecurity set to nearly triple, a new analysis warns.
Research by the International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED), a think tank that focuses on environmental sustainability, climate change and equitable development, shows climate change will hit poorer nations hardest, with their food systems deteriorating up to seven times faster than those in wealthy countries.
Already, nearly 59 percent of the world’s population lives in countries with below average food security, a divide expected to widen sharply as global heating intensifies.
“The countries least responsible for climate change are being hit the hardest,” said Ritu Bharadwaj, who led the study.
Under a 2°C warming scenario, as many as 24 countries could fall into critical food insecurity, with the worst impacts expected in Somalia, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Afghanistan, Haiti and Mozambique.
In these countries, hunger levels could surge by more than 30 percent, sharply increasing the risk of famine. In contrast, high income nations are projected to see only a modest rise of around 3 percent.
Across low income countries overall, food insecurity is expected to rise by 22 percent.
The findings highlight stark global inequality. Low income countries are responsible for just 1 percent of global emissions, while wealthier nations account for more than 80 percent.
But the crisis goes far beyond food supply alone.
The study shows climate stress will first hit water, sanitation and health systems, increasing malnutrition even where food is physically available, while rising prices and market disruptions will make access to food increasingly difficult.
“Climate shocks do not stay local. They ripple through global supply chains and drive price volatility worldwide,” Bharadwaj said.
Experts caution that even wealthy nations will not be immune. While they may be able to import food during shortages, global disruptions could still trigger widespread economic shocks.
The report also raises serious security concerns, warning that widespread food system collapse in vulnerable countries could fuel instability, conflict and forced migration.
To prevent the worst case scenario, researchers are calling for urgent investment in climate resilient agriculture, stronger social protection systems and improved water and soil management.
Without swift action, the message is stark. A warmer world could become a far hungrier one.
Adding to this, Sohanur Rahman said the crisis must be understood through a nutrition lens.
“Food insecurity is no longer just about availability. It is about the nutrition nexus. Climate change is disrupting water, agriculture and health systems at the same time, leading to hidden hunger, malnutrition and long term human development risks, especially for children and vulnerable communities,” he said.
