Built-up area grew 7x, 60% of waterbodies lost, temperature rose up to 5°C: Change Initiative calls for Natural Rights-Led Governance
Dhaka is hurtling toward an irreversible climate and ecological crisis, warns a new report by the environmental think tank Change Initiative. The study, titled “Dhaka Without Nature? Rethinking Natural Rights-Led Urban Sustainability”, paints a grim picture of the capital’s transformation over the past four decades, calling for urgent legislative action to protect nature’s rights and restructure urban governance.
Between 1980 and 2024, Dhaka’s built-up area increased sevenfold, while land surface temperature rose by 3 to 5 degrees Celsius. Simultaneously, the city lost 60 percent of its waterbodies and nearly half of its tree cover. The report, based on 44 years of satellite data and urban heat mapping, attributes this environmental decline to unplanned and unsustainable urban expansion.
Authored by M. Zakir Hossain Khan, with contributions from Sabrin Sultana and Md. Fuad Hassan, the report was launched on Saturday at a press briefing in Dhaka. It urges a paradigm shift in urban planning by embedding “Natural Rights-Led Governance” (NRLG), which frames ecological protection as a fundamental right and necessity for human survival.
Green cover shrinking rapidly
The study finds that Dhaka’s tree cover has dropped from 21.6 percent in 1980 to just 11.6 percent today. Per capita tree coverage in the metropolitan area now stands at only 3.44 square meters, well below the global standard of 9 square meters. Dhaka North City Corporation (DNCC) has 4.23 m² per person, while Dhaka South City Corporation (DSCC) lags behind with 2.33 m² per person. Several areas — including Adabar, Rampura, Kafrul, Bangshal, and Wari — have become virtually treeless.
Waterbodies almost disappeared
Similarly alarming is the loss of waterbodies, with 61 percent of them disappearing since 1980. The citywide coverage has fallen to 4.8 percent, offering just 1.43 m² of waterbody per person — far below the minimum recommended 4.5 m². DSCC residents have access to less than 1 m² per person. Sutrapur, Mirpur, Gendaria, and Kafrul are among the worst-hit areas.
Rising urban heat
The report notes that Dhaka’s land surface temperature has increased by 3 to 5°C over the past four decades. No area now remains under 30°C, while hotspots like Shyampur, Hazaribag, Tejgaon, Rampura, and Darussalam frequently exceed 32°C. The city has effectively lost all its climate-buffer zones, with poorer neighborhoods bearing the brunt.
Concrete dominance
Dhaka’s built-up area has grown over 700 percent since 1980 and now exceeds 50 percent of the city’s total land area. In 37 out of 50 thanas, more than 70 percent of land is covered by concrete. Adabar, Mirpur, Uttara Paschim, Kafrul, Wari, Dhanmondi, and Shyampur are among the most heavily urbanized zones.
Ecological inequality
The report highlights growing inequality in access to green and blue spaces. Peripheral areas like Uttarkhan and Turag still retain some ecological features, while central, densely populated zones such as Wari, Bangshal, and Kotwali are almost entirely deprived of trees and waterbodies.
Urgent call for natural rights-led governance
In response to these findings, Change Initiative is advocating for a legal and structural overhaul of urban governance. The report proposes adopting a Natural Rights-Led Governance (NRLG) model that views nature as a rights-bearing entity entitled to life, dignity, regeneration, and protection from exploitation.
“Dhaka is heading toward 25 million residents by 2035. With tree cover now at just 11.6 percent and waterbody access around 1–2 percent, the city is facing climate collapse,” said Zakir Hossain Khan. “We must reject the Karachi model of collapse and move toward Singapore’s nature-integrated urban planning — adapted through equity and local wisdom.”
Recommendations
Change Initiative has outlined both immediate and medium-term actions to restore Dhaka’s ecological balance:
Immediate measures:
Legislate nature’s rights and criminalize encroachment on forests and wetlands
Reform the Detailed Area Plan (DAP) to include ecological buffers and critical zones
Limit floor-area ratios (FAR) in ecologically sensitive areas
Empower communities as guardians of natural resources
Mandate green zoning and introduce eco-compensation mechanisms
Impose five times higher tax on concrete structures compared to nature-friendly ones
Begin large-scale restoration of waterbodies
Medium-term measures:
Launch targeted nature-based solutions
Prioritize green investment in low-income and high-density areas
Plant 56.5 km² of trees in deprived zones
Reintroduce ecological buffers to reduce temperature by up to 1°C
Develop a digital natural accountability system
Channel sustainable finance toward environmental regeneration
Expert support
Dr. Riffat Mahmood, Associate Professor of Geography and Environment at Jagannath University, stressed the importance of community involvement: “Transforming flyovers into vertical gardens, engaging youth through education, and empowering local stewardship are critical steps for Dhaka’s sustainable future.”
A rights-based urban future
The report invokes the recent verdict of the International Court of Justice to emphasize that environmental degradation is a form of rights violation. It argues that nature must be recognized not merely as a resource, but as a living system entitled to dignity and protection.
“This is not about cosmetic greenery,” said Khan. “It’s about shifting the very foundation of urban governance — from concrete dominance to ecological justice. Without this change, Dhaka’s future is bleak.”
Change Initiative’s report stands as a clarion call for policymakers, planners, and citizens to rethink the future of the capital — not just for its people, but for the natural systems that sustain life.
