Generally, COP is expected to help take necessary decisions to address the problems seen globally due to climate change
Even though this year’s UN climate summit, well known as COP29, is reaching an end amid ongoing discussions and protests, experts fear that the event may fail to see concrete achievements, especially in climate finance.
Speculations are already rife about the likely “failure” of the annual summit given its progress so far. COP29, which began in Baku, Azerbaijan, on November 11, and IS set to end on November 22, has garnered growing calls for manifold increase in climate funds, with several experts demanding trillions.
Generally, the conference is expected to take necessary decisions to address the problems seen globally due to climate change.
Sunil Acharya, regional coordinator of Oxfam Asia, says that the progress so far shows very little chance of achieving anything substantial from COP29.
“Whatever progress should have been made in the first week did not happen. The agendas that needed to be agreed upon at the current conference have also been pushed to later,” he said. “This is not a good sign. The various climate finance funds under the UNFCCC should have been pledged by rich countries. So far, the situation has been very disappointing.”
Adequate climate fund still a far cry
Initially, COP29 was announced as a “Finance COP”. The reason for this was to increase the target of $100 billion for climate finance every year, announced in 2009, and to set new targets for climate finance to combat the effects of climate change.
However, no concrete progress has been made so far. Although developing countries have demanded that a climate finance target of $1.3 trillion be set every year and that rich countries should contribute to it to meet that target, developed countries have backed away from it.
There is very little demand for setting subsidiary targets for the loss and damage and adaptation funds in addition to the main target. There is no progress in that either.
Rich countries were expected to pledge sufficient support for climate finance-related funds such as the Loss and Damage Fund and the Adaptation Fund. The Adaptation Fund has been providing aid to combat extreme weather and rising sea levels for 15 years. The fund has a target of $300 million this year, but rich countries have so far pledged just $61 million.
What global leaders say
Speaking at the opening session of the conference, leaders stressed the need for urgent action to save lives from the impacts of climate change. But there is a huge gap between words and deeds.
Mikko Olikanen, head of the Adaptation Fund, says there is a huge discrepancy between leaders’ rhetoric and actual financial support. “There is a huge gap between leaders’ rhetoric and actual financial support,” he told reporters at the conference.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres urged rich countries to provide $187 billion to $359 billion in annual aid by 2030. “The dollars that are being lost are not just a lack of accountability—they are lost lives, destroyed crops, and stunted development,” he says.
G20 talks frustrates green activists
With COP29 remaining a global topic for more than a week now, the Group of 20 summit in Brazil’s Rio De Janeiro disappointed negotiators at the UN climate conference.
The event in Brazil failed to send a “strong signal” on the pressing need to resolve the climate crisis.
The G20 leaders’ declaration reiterated the need for rapidly scaling up climate finance “from billions to trillions” and promised to accelerate the reformation of the international financial architecture to make more money available for climate change.
But they did not address the immediate need for COP29 to make headway in the climate finance negotiations.
It comes on late-Monday, a day after the host of COP29 had pleaded to G20 countries to send a positive signal on the need to tackle climate change and provide clear mandates to help save talks that had bogged down in Baku.
Harjeet Singh, climate activist and global engagement director for the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative, said, “World leaders at the G20 Summit displayed a stark failure in leadership, neglecting to reaffirm their commitment to transitioning away from fossil fuels—a critical pivot for global climate action. Their rehashed rhetoric offers no solace for the fraught COP29 negotiations, where we continue to see a deadlock on climate finance.
“Developed nations remain unmoved, failing to quantify the trillions needed or to ensure these funds are provided as grants—essential for achieving climate justice. Without decisive progress on finance at COP29, we are steering towards a catastrophic temperature scenario, where the most vulnerable will bear the gravest consequences.”
Pledges, efforts and failures
Rich countries pledged $355 million to the Adaptation Fund in 2021. There was a pledge of $233 million in 2022. There was a pledge of $191 million in 2023. So far, only 10 European countries have pledged to contribute to the Adaptation Fund. Spain has pledged the most so far, $19 million. The UK and the European Union have not yet made any commitments.
In 2023, rich countries made small commitments to the Adaptation Fund, using the excuse of having to pay into the Disaster Risk Reduction Fund.
However, they have not made any commitments to the Disaster Risk Reduction Fund this year either. Last year, about $700 million was pledged to the Disaster Risk Reduction Fund, which COP28 decided to launch.
But rich countries have not shown interest in contributing money to the Disaster Risk Reduction Fund this year. So far, Sweden has pledged only $18.4 million.
The World Bank has been given the task of running the disaster relief fund, which was launched last year, for a transitional period. Last month, it announced plans to double aid to developing countries struggling with the effects of climate change to $40 billion a year by 2025 for the Adaptation Fund.
The UN’s “Adaptation Gap” report shows that even if this target is met, poor countries will only cover a small fraction of the amount needed to cope with extreme weather events and rising sea levels.
The Least Developed Countries (LDC) fund has suspended its programs due to budget constraints.
The head of the Adaptation Fund, Olikanen, said that the situation so far is very disappointing as needs continue to grow. “There are many projects lined up with the Adaptation Fund. If donors don’t provide the money, the fund will run dry.”
An expert’s take on rich countries’ reluctance
Oxfam Asia Coordinator Sunil Acharya says that the victory of Donald Trump in the recent US election and the way rich countries view China may be the reason.
“After Trump won in the US, the European and developed countries are thinking, why we should give when the US does not,” he said. “It seems that they are trying to avoid fulfilling their obligations by showing America on one side and China on the other.”
China under scanner
Questions surfaced about China’s role in every recent climate conference. Since China is the largest carbon emitter, rich countries have been demanding that it invest in climate finance and reduce emissions.
At COP29, China has been more active and vocal than before. China, which is not required to report on its climate finance investments, has reported that it has invested $24.5 billion in climate finance since 2014 to help countries combat the effects of climate change. If this figure is accepted, China is sixth on the list of countries investing in climate finance.
Another surprise is that Chinese representatives, journalists, and other participants seem to be more active than in the past at this year’s climate conference. Various topics are discussed at the Chinese ‘pavilion’ in the ‘Blue Zone,’ and representatives and experts from other countries participate in the discussions. The design of the ‘pavilion’ and the materials used there are also attractive.
