As the Ganges Water Sharing Treaty nears expiry, Bangladesh and India face complex negotiations shaped by politics, climate pressures and water scarcity, with major implications for regional stability and livelihoods.
With a critical river treaty nearing expiry, Bangladesh and India are entering high stakes negotiations that could reshape water security for millions across the region.
Bangladesh’s Foreign Minister Khalilur Rahman visited New Delhi on April 7 for a three day goodwill tour, where discussions are expected to cover trade expansion, energy cooperation, visa challenges, border tensions and the future of the Ganges Water Sharing Treaty, which is set to expire later this year.
The agreement governs dry season water distribution at the Farakka Barrage, a longstanding point of contention between the two neighbours.
Political and strategic dynamics at play
Water experts say the outcome of the negotiations will depend less on technical formulas and more on broader geopolitical and strategic considerations.
Renowned water resources specialist Ainun Nishat noted that transboundary water agreements are deeply embedded in wider bilateral relations.
He said the discussions are influenced by trade, migration and regional stability concerns, making the treaty renewal a matter of complex diplomatic bargaining rather than purely hydrological calculation.
Growing pressure from water scarcity and climate change
The Ganges basin is under increasing strain due to upstream diversions, changing rainfall patterns and climate variability.
During the dry season, reduced flows have severe consequences for Bangladesh’s southwest region, affecting agriculture, freshwater availability, fisheries and ecosystems. Rising salinity intrusion has already intensified vulnerabilities in coastal districts.
Bangladesh has reportedly proposed securing around 40,000 cusecs of water to meet its environmental and socio economic needs, although experts caution that negotiations are ultimately shaped by availability constraints.
“We are essentially negotiating over a shortage,” Nishat said, adding that limited dry season flow remains the core challenge.
India’s position and negotiation outlook
Some reports indicate that India may not favour renewing the treaty under the same framework as 1996. Instead, it may seek a shorter term arrangement and a larger share of water to meet its own growing demands.
Such possibilities have raised concerns in Dhaka, where policymakers are advocating for a more stable and long term agreement consistent with international practices on transboundary rivers.
Experts note that water sharing negotiations in the region also intersect with broader basin level dynamics, including the role of upstream countries such as Nepal, which remains outside the current treaty framework despite its significance in river flow augmentation.
Strategic leverage and public sentiment
Analysts suggest Bangladesh’s leverage lies in the broader interdependence between the two countries.
India has strong economic and geopolitical interests in maintaining stable relations with Bangladesh, and any perception of inequitable water sharing could influence public sentiment.
Observers note that public opinion in Bangladesh has often been sensitive to water sharing issues, adding an additional layer of political pressure to the negotiations.
Risks of abandoning the existing framework
Some policy voices have suggested declaring the 1996 treaty obsolete before entering new negotiations, arguing that climate realities require a fresh framework.
However, Nishat cautioned that such a move could weaken Bangladesh’s position.
He warned that existing agreements provide the foundation for continued dialogue, and removing that framework could reduce India’s obligation to engage.
Need for technical preparedness
As talks advance, experts stress the importance of strong technical preparation and inclusive consultation.
They emphasise that Bangladesh must clearly define its water needs, develop negotiation strategies and incorporate expert input to ensure balanced outcomes.
The treaty’s implications extend beyond water allocation to climate resilience, food security and livelihoods for millions dependent on the Ganges basin.
Outlook cautious optimism
While uncertainty remains, ongoing high level engagement signals a willingness on both sides to continue dialogue.
The renewal of the Ganges Water Sharing Treaty is widely seen as essential for sustaining bilateral cooperation and addressing shared environmental challenges.
As climate pressures intensify, the outcome of these negotiations may define the future of water diplomacy in South Asia.
