Climate Change: Preparations Bangladesh needs to make

Man-made climate change, and its adverse impacts, no longer resides in the realms of nightmare or science fiction – they are now a harsh reality. There is no longer any doubt that such changes arose from human activities.

Since the dawn of industrial revolution, every production process and development activity contributed to climate change.

From the rise in Earth’s average surface temperature, the increase in sea levels, and the rising salinity of seas and oceans, to changes in ocean currents, the shifting size and position of large icebergs in the Polar Regions, and the dramatic increase in various climate-related incidents – all these factors have played a role in climate change. 

Risks triggered by these changes in the climate system have clearly been identified by climate experts, who warn that the chain of circumstances will push the climate toward a transformation that cannot be reversed.

Recent satellite and land-based observations have clearly shown that sea levels have been rising by three millimeters annually since 1993, which is much higher than the average increase during the 20th century. 

It has also been found that sea levels have already risen by 20cm since 1880. If the lowest estimates regarding sea level rise prove accurate, 10% of the world’s total population [600 million people] living in low-lying coastal areas will be at risk of submersion.

Scientists have already painted a grim picture of climate change in Bangladesh. 

In recent years, the country has experienced higher-than-normal temperatures, heavy rainfall, and an increasing number of tropical cyclones and other storms, all of which are believed to have triggered a negative shift in Bangladesh’s socio-economic conditions. 

Scientists predict that if the rising trend in Bangladesh’s land surface temperature continues, sea level in the Bay of Bengal will increase by around 30cm by 2050, leading to a temporary or permanent submersion of 14% of the country’s land.

According to the study even moderate climate change could leave people, especially those from poorer countries and communities, highly vulnerable. If the Earth’s temperature rises by more than 2 degrees Celsius, it will be difficult for the poorer countries to adapt to such changes.

The impact of climate change varies from country to country and region to region. The effects on future generations will be completely different from those we experience today, and they will differ between human societies and various parts of the environment.

It has become urgent to implement swift, consistent, and effective measures through global and regional programmes to prevent dramatic climate change. To achieve the goals aimed at mitigating climate change, effective action must be taken now. 

Failure to do so will make it extremely difficult to meet the net-zero targets set for 2050. Even a slow implementation of these measures will inevitably increase the social and economic costs of adaptation and prevention.

The scale of climate change will be so immense and widespread that it cannot be prevented all at once. However, the pace of change can be mitigated gradually, and many scientists and policymakers have seriously considered how to address this issue.

In fact, several mitigation action plans have already been decided upon and are being implemented. 

However, the responsibility for mitigation lies with those who have contributed to and continue to contribute to global warming by emitting greenhouse gases through massive industrial production.

Notably, global warming is the main driver behind the current climate change. However, there is hope, as nearly all developed countries, except the USA, have accepted their responsibilities and are working toward mitigation.

Unfortunately, the adverse impacts of climate change are already visible in many countries, particularly poorer ones, as mitigation is a slow process. 

Bangladesh highly vulnerable to climate change: 

Although Bangladesh is not morally responsible for mitigation, acquiring adaptation skills is crucial for our survival. 

Given our shift towards a knowledge and justice-based society, almost everyone understands that there is an essential, positive correlation between a fair, corruption-free, growing economy and a healthy natural environment.

The complex relationship between environmental disasters and climate change is affecting the political economy in many countries. Epidemics and pandemics caused by viruses and bacteria are, in some way, linked to environmental damage.

We also believe that environmental disasters are connected to the SARS-CoV virus, which caused the Covid-19 pandemic.

Several action plans aimed at mitigation have already been decided upon, and work is underway. The adoption of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Joint Implementation (JI) under the Kyoto Protocol in 1997 are two such initiatives.

In line with these plans, efforts to mitigate climate change are ongoing worldwide

Recently, intensive work has been undertaken to launch REDD+ (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation, and the role of conservation, sustainable management of forests, and enhancement of forest carbon stocks in developing countries), which will provide multiple benefits for ecosystems and the environment alongside climate change prevention.

Although the allocation was small, it marked the first effective governmental step to combat climate change and paved the way for future governments to take further action.

The current government is working intensively on climate change, developing various action plans. 

Research on adaptation is being conducted by the Climate Change Cell under the Department of Environment, and new participatory programs are being undertaken to preserve the environment. 

The destruction of forests is responsible for 20%-25% greenhouse gas emissions worldwide, with the majority occurring in tropical and sub-tropical regions. The destruction of forests in Bangladesh has also contributed to this issue. 

Although documents indicate that 17% of Bangladesh’s land is classified as forest, many forest areas have been illegally occupied due to the lack of proper enforcement and monitoring of the Forest Act.

Corruption is also significant in this sector, pushing the country’s Salbon (a forest of Sal trees or Shorea robusta) to the brink of complete destruction. Influential individuals, particularly those with political support, have driven the destruction of the country’s forest resources over the last 3-4 decades.

Although 10% of the country’s land is under the jurisdiction of the Forest Department, the area covered by effective forests may not exceed 2%-3%. Most of the existing forests in the country has been generated artificially by Afforestation/reforestation. This forest simply resembles the garden of trees, not the ecosystem-rich forest.  

Maintaining 25% real forest coverage is not only crucial for an agriculture-based economy like Bangladesh, but is also essential for climate change mitigation, which has global implications.

The public expects this government to take steps for afforestation by recovering encroached forest land and bringing the perpetrators to justice without showing any mercy. The government must remain vigilant to prevent anyone from using political influence to continue the destruction of forests.

However, it might not be practical for the Bangladesh government to maintain its policy of preserving 20% of land as forest, given the significant population growth, increasing urbanization, and the looming fear of a food crisis. 

However, if we reclaim occupied forest land and use it exclusively to produce forest resources, we can avert the impending destruction. 

To achieve this goal, it is necessary to bring not only corrupt forest officers and staff to justice but also the influential individuals with political power who compel them to engage in corruption.

In addition, those who refrained from engaging in corruption despite being in a corrupt environment should be identified and rewarded, which will ultimately promote justice, morality, and merit. We can surely expect this from the government.

The impact of climate change on all of humanity is quite complex, as is the adaptation to it

Bangladesh needs to decide on its adaptation strategy by considering the sector-wise impact of climate change in accordance with regional models of various changes, such as temperature and rainfall, which require comprehensive research. 

Unfortunately, I think such research is rare in our country due to a lack of skills and funding. We can seek international funding if necessary to enhance the scale and effectiveness of this research.

We are less responsible for climate change than developed nations. The responsibility mostly lies with the industrialized nations.

We, however, are suffering from its adverse effects. The countries responsible for climate change should provide us with the necessary assistance for our research and adjusted lifestyle as compensation.

The concept should be clear in our envisioned knowledge-based society and state system. No economic action plan will succeed if we fail to effectively adapt to the adversities of climate change.

It is evident today that floods, cyclones, and other natural disasters increase poverty and undermine food and energy security every year.

We will surely face significant danger if we fail to understand, through thorough research, that the submerging land in Bangladesh’s coastal areas and the rising salinity will drastically alter agriculture and the entire social system in those regions.

The government will have to take responsibility for such failures

We expect that the incumbent government will choose the path of economic development, taking into consideration the correlation between climate change and macroeconomy.

If we face devastation from the impacts of climate change, our economy will collapse, and we will inch towards destruction, likely with no effective solutions. So, it is high time to take every necessary step to combat climate change.

Dr. Md Danesh Miah,  is a professor at the Institute of Forestry and Environmental Sciences, University of Chittagong