Changing weather patterns are negatively affecting wheat production. Bangladesh is experiencing shorter winter seasons and relatively higher temperatures during the winter.
Milled rice production from Bangladesh’s three distinct growing seasons is forecast to reach 37.55 million tonnes in marketing year 2025-26, up 2.6% from the previous year’s estimated 36.6 million tonnes for the country’s largest grain crop, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.
The FAS forecasts 2025-26 total rice consumption at 38 million tonnes, a slight increase from the 2024-25 estimate of 37.8 million, based on population and increasing use of rice in the feed industry.
To help meet demand amid higher rice prices, the import tariff has been reduced to 2% and imports for 2025-26 are projected to be 600,000 tonnes, down 800,000 tonnes year on year based on the improved production outlook. Bangladesh is the world’s third largest producer of rice behind China and India.
The demand for wheat as food continues to grow as rice prices remain high in the domestic market, while the use of wheat in the animal feed industry is also increasing. Similarly, the use of corn in commercial and household feed preparation is rising, the FAS noted.
In Bangladesh, wheat is the second most significant staple food after rice, and local production accounts for 14% of the total demand, according to the FAS. Production for 2025-26 is seen at 1.1 million tonnes, the same as the previous marketing year.
Changing weather patterns are negatively affecting wheat production. Bangladesh is experiencing shorter winter seasons and relatively higher temperatures during the winter, the FAS said. The lack of improved varieties has led to a gradual decline in both wheat acreage and production over time.
Bangladesh, a South Asian nation of about 171 million people, relies on wheat imports from the international market, the FAS said. Since April 2024, the country has been importing large quantities of wheat, mostly from the Black Sea region, due to lower prices, improved supply chain logistics, and higher demand in the local market.
The FAS forecasts wheat imports at 6.9 million tonnes in 2025-26, slightly higher than the 2024-25 estimate of 6.8 million tonnes. Of this total, the private sector imported 90%, while the government imported the rest. Total wheat consumption is projected to be 7.8 million tonnes for 2025-26, up from 7.7 million tonnes year on year.
Corn cultivation has expanded in recent years due to demand from the animal feed industry and farmers are receiving higher prices for corn than many other crops.
“Corn is the second-largest grain crop in Bangladesh after rice in terms of both acreage and production,” the FAS said. “Farmers are increasingly cultivating corn due to its high yields and strong market prices, making it a profitable crop.”
For 2025-26, the FAS projects corn production at 5.8 million tonnes — assuming good weather, timely application of fertilizer, and proper irrigation — on par with the 5.7 million tonnes estimated for 2024-25.Imports of 1.6 million tonnes are forecast for 2025-26 to meet total demand of 7.3 million tonnes, which is up from 7.1 million the previous year, driven mainly by the increased feed demand.
