Brazil’s falling forest-clearing alerts could strengthen its climate record, but campaigners warn political attacks and highway projects may still threaten Amazon protection gains.
The Amazon recorded the smallest area under deforestation alerts in the historical series in 2026, falling 36% from the previous year to 2,874 square kilometres, according to figures from Brazil’s Real-Time Deforestation Detection System released on Friday by the National Institute for Space Research.
The Deter data, covering the 12 months between August 2025 and July 2026, the deforestation “fiscal year”, marked the lowest alert area since the current series began in 2016, the Brazilian NGO Observatório do Clima said.
The alerts fell from 4,495 square kilometres last year, increasing the chances that Brazil will record a historic reduction in official deforestation rates when final data is released in the coming months, the organisation said.
In the four years of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s third term, the area under alerts in the Amazon totalled 19,642 square kilometres, a 41% drop compared with the 2019-2022 period, when 33,400 square kilometres were recorded, an area about the size of Belgium.
Deter uses near real-time satellite imagery to guide environmental inspections by Ibama, Brazil’s federal environmental agency. But because of its relatively low resolution, it is not used to calculate the total deforested area. That calculation is made by another Inpe system, Prodes, whose estimates are published at the end of each year.
However, Observatório do Clima said technological improvements in Deter in recent years have allowed officials to anticipate how Prodes will behave.
If the nearly one-third decline in clearcutting recorded by Deter in 2026 is confirmed by Prodes, Brazil is likely to post its lowest official deforestation rate since satellite monitoring began in 1988, the group said.
“The numbers presented today are historic, the result of serious environmental protection policies, and prove that it is entirely possible to fulfill the commitment made by the country to zero and reverse deforestation by 2030,” said Marcio Astrini, executive secretary of Observatório do Clima.
The group said the reduction also directly affects Brazil’s emissions trajectory, as almost half of all the carbon the country releases into the atmosphere each year comes from forest destruction.
According to calculations by Seeg, the Greenhouse Gas Emissions Estimation System, an Observatório do Clima initiative, the reduction in destruction reported by Deter prevented the release of 2.238 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent into the atmosphere, an amount equivalent to the total gross emitted by Brazil in one year.
Seeg’s deforestation emissions estimates are produced by Ipam, the Amazon Environmental Research Institute.
Observatório do Clima said the decline in deforestation has occurred alongside growth in agricultural production and sector gains, as seen between 2005 and 2012.
A study by CNA, the Brazilian Agriculture and Livestock Confederation, in partnership with Cepea-Esalq/USP, showed that Brazilian agribusiness GDP and production volume grew 12.2% and 6.76%, respectively, in 2025. The total value generated by the sector’s activities rose from R$2.5 trillion in 2022 to R$3.2 trillion last year.
The reduction in deforestation also has an important effect during El Niño events, the group said. With less forest clearing, there is less fuel to catch fire, reducing the chances of uncontrolled forest fires such as those seen in 2023 and 2024.
But Observatório do Clima warned that the progress faces pressure from Brazilian members of Congress, who it said are preparing an offensive against environmental legislation.
The group cited projects aimed at weakening Ibama’s capacity to act, granting amnesty to land grabbers, decreasing protection for conservation units and relaxing the Forest Code and other rules for protecting native vegetation.
The organisation also said the reduction in deforestation faces “friendly fire”. In June this year, Dnit, Brazil’s National Department of Transport Infrastructure, an agency linked to the Ministry of Transport, authorised without proper environmental licensing the paving of stretches of the BR-319 highway, which connects Porto Velho, the capital of Rondônia state, to Manaus, the capital of Amazonas state.
The highway cuts through the most preserved region of the Amazon. According to scientists cited by Observatório do Clima, the paving could lead to an escalation of deforestation in the region, with emissions of 8 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent by 2050, four times more than what was saved by the reduction in deforestation alerts over four years.
“The reduction in deforestation rates is the Lula government’s greatest environmental legacy and one of the largest contributions given to the climate agenda in recent years. However, the end of our forests’ destruction will only be possible with a major change in Parliament, in addition to resolving contradictions within the government itself,” Astrini said.
