Improved climate modelling will help Turkish municipalities identify local risks and plan targeted adaptation measures, as drought, extreme heat and flooding intensify pressure on communities.
Türkiye will showcase locally developed climate adaptation projects and advanced climate modelling at next month’s UN Climate Change Conference (COP31) in Antalya, as the country steps up efforts to protect communities from worsening heatwaves, floods and droughts.
Halil Hasar, head of Türkiye’s Climate Change Directorate and chief climate diplomacy official for COP31, announced the initiative on Thursday at the opening of the two-day Ankara Climate Transition Forum.
He stressed that effective climate action requires collective efforts, reliable scientific information and stronger early warning systems to help local authorities prepare for increasingly unpredictable weather conditions.
“One neighbourhood is facing a heatwave, while another is dealing with rain and flooding. We are living in a different era where even the norms are changing,” Hasar said, highlighting the need for more precise climate risk assessments.
The official said Türkiye had significantly improved the geographical precision of its climate modelling systems, allowing authorities to assess climate risks at a much more localised level.
While earlier models treated areas of approximately 100 square kilometres as a single unit, newer projections offer a spatial resolution of three kilometres, enabling assessments across areas of roughly nine square kilometres.
The improved projections could help municipalities identify neighbourhoods particularly vulnerable to extreme heat, flooding and water shortages, allowing them to develop more effective infrastructure plans and climate adaptation strategies.
Hasar said the modelling work examines possible climate conditions in the near future and towards the end of the century under both low- and high-emission scenarios.
He also emphasised that investing in preventive measures could significantly reduce the economic and social costs of climate-related disasters.
A pilot climate adaptation initiative in Antalya will be presented during COP31, demonstrating Türkiye’s efforts to translate scientific information into practical solutions for local communities.
The initiative comes as Türkiye faces mounting climate pressures. According to the country’s General Directorate of Meteorology, 2024 was its hottest year on record, while 2025 was the driest since 1964.
Annual precipitation in 2025 was 27.6 percent below the 1991–2020 average, raising concerns about water security, agricultural production and the growing vulnerability of communities to climate extremes.
The Ankara Climate Transition Forum, held on October 15 and 16, has brought together municipalities, international financial institutions, scientists and representatives of the European Union and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).
The event is jointly organised by Türkiye’s Climate Change Directorate, UNDP and the EU Delegation under the EU-funded Partnership for Local Climate Action in Türkiye, which supports municipalities in developing science-based climate policies and strengthening resilience.
UNDP Türkiye Resident Representative Monica Merino emphasised the importance of translating climate commitments into concrete action, while Maria Luisa Wyganowski, head of financial cooperation at the EU Delegation, called for stronger cooperation among governments, institutions and communities.
Wyganowski said climate change could not be tackled by any single institution, municipality or country acting alone, stressing the need for coordinated action across sectors.
The discussions reflect Türkiye’s ambition to make COP31 an implementation-focused summit, with greater emphasis on delivering existing climate commitments through practical solutions rather than relying solely on new pledges.
COP31 will take place in Antalya from November 9 to 20, bringing together world leaders, negotiators, scientists, businesses and civil society representatives to advance global climate action under the Paris Agreement.
Türkiye’s Environment, Urbanization and Climate Change Minister Murat Kurum is the conference’s president-designate and will oversee its Action Agenda, while Australia’s Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen will lead the formal negotiations.
The Antalya summit is expected to focus on accelerating implementation of climate commitments, advancing the global energy transition and strengthening support for climate-vulnerable countries and communities.
