India’s Shahpur Kandi Dam aims to retain Ravi River waters, heightening Pakistan’s water security concerns and testing the fragile balance of the Indus Waters Treaty amid rising regional tensions.
India is moving ahead with plans to divert surplus waters of the Ravi River away from Pakistan through completion of the Shahpur Kandi Dam, a development that could intensify water stress in Pakistan as the summer season approaches. The project is designed to prevent excess flows from crossing the border and instead use the water for domestic irrigation and development needs.
According to Jammu and Kashmir minister Javed Ahmed Rana, the dam has been fast tracked following tensions over the Indus Waters Treaty, with authorities emphasizing that surplus water previously flowing downstream will now be retained. Officials say the project will support drought prone areas such as Kathua and Samba, with operations expected to begin by the end of March.
The 1960 treaty, brokered by the World Bank, allocates the six rivers of the Indus basin between India and Pakistan, granting Pakistan primary rights over the western rivers while India retains use of the eastern rivers including the Ravi. Pakistan depends on the Indus system for roughly 80 percent of its irrigation, making any change in flows highly sensitive.
India announced a suspension of aspects of cooperation under the treaty in April 2025 following the Pahalgam attack, framing the move as a pause rather than termination. While immediate shortages were not expected due to infrastructure constraints, analysts warn that cumulative upstream developments could pose long term risks for Pakistan’s water security.
Environmental experts note that altering river flows may also affect downstream ecosystems, fisheries and riverine livelihoods, underscoring the broader ecological consequences of large scale diversion in a climate stressed region.
Shahpur Kandi Dam background
The Shahpur Kandi project was first proposed in 1979, with its foundation laid by former prime minister Indira Gandhi in 1982. After decades of delays due to inter state disputes, it was declared a national project in 2008.
The dam is about 55.5 meters high and includes a hydraulic channel of approximately 7.7 kilometers. With an estimated cost of ₹3,394.49 crore, officials say it will provide irrigation to thousands of hectares across Punjab and Jammu and Kashmir. Previously, surplus waters flowed downstream through Madhopur into Pakistan.
Regional implications
Experts warn that reduced flows could exacerbate water scarcity in Pakistan’s eastern Punjab, potentially affecting agriculture, groundwater recharge and rural livelihoods. The project reflects India’s broader strategy to maximize utilization of its allocated waters while navigating geopolitical tensions.
Sohanur Rahman, executive coordinator of YouthNet Global, emphasized the importance of cooperation, noting that transboundary river governance is critical for food security, climate resilience and regional stability. He stressed that the costs of non cooperation including disrupted agriculture, biodiversity loss and rising tensions are likely to outweigh short term political gains.
The evolving situation signals a significant shift in water governance across the eastern Indus basin, with implications for diplomacy, climate adaptation and regional peace.
