With the Ganges Water Sharing Treaty expiring in 2026, Bangladesh confronts mounting diplomatic pressure to secure equitable flows, climate resilience and basin-wide cooperation with India and Nepal amid growing uncertainty.
As Bangladesh enters 2026, the expiry of the Ganges Water Sharing Treaty has emerged as one of the country’s most pressing foreign policy challenges, with implications extending beyond bilateral relations with India. Bangladesh and India share 54 transboundary rivers, but the Ganges remains the only one governed by a formal water-sharing treaty. Efforts to reach an agreement on the Teesta River remain stalled, largely due to objections from India’s West Bengal state, underscoring persistent gaps in regional river governance.
Signed on December 12, 1996, the 30-year treaty was designed to ensure equitable sharing of Ganges water at the Farakka Barrage during the critical dry months. With just one season remaining under the agreement, no joint mechanism has yet been formed to negotiate its renewal or replacement, raising concern among policymakers and water experts.
Although Bangladesh and India signed memorandums on the Feni and Kushiyara rivers in 2019 and 2022, these arrangements remain limited in scope and largely unimplemented. By contrast, the Ganges Treaty governs dry-season flows that are vital to agriculture, fisheries, navigation, and livelihoods across southwestern Bangladesh.
Experts warn that the treaty’s flow-dependent formula has consistently disadvantaged Bangladesh during lean periods. While officials of the Joint Rivers Commission say the framework has largely been followed over the past 29 years, independent assessments suggest that Bangladesh has often received less water than required during critical months. The treaty’s Farakka-centric approach means water sharing is calculated only at the barrage, leaving upstream storage, diversion, and withdrawals outside its scope.
Research indicates that dozens of smaller dams and barrages upstream in Indian states, including Bihar, Jharkhand, Uttar Pradesh, and Uttarakhand, collectively withdraw far more water than Farakka itself. These structures significantly influence downstream flows but remain unaccounted for in the treaty. “The flow at Farakka is sometimes lower than the historical average,” said Professor Ataur Rahman, a Joint Rivers Commission expert, urging Bangladesh to begin technical and diplomatic preparations for a revised agreement.
The treaty’s fixed duration presents another challenge. Unlike many international river agreements that are permanent and include built-in review mechanisms, the Ganges Treaty’s expiry has made renewal politically sensitive. Nepal, a key upper-riparian state, is excluded from the framework, and no third-party arbitration mechanism exists to resolve disputes, further weakening institutional safeguards.
Despite repeated meetings, little tangible progress has been achieved. The 85th to 88th meetings of the Joint Committee on Sharing of the Ganga were held between November 2024 and September 2025 in Dhaka, Kolkata, and New Delhi, without producing concrete steps toward renewal. Foreign ministry sources say the issue was discussed between the two prime ministers in 2024, with a proposal to form a review committee, but the body has yet to be constituted.
Concerns have intensified amid reports that India may withdraw an additional 30,000 to 35,000 cubic feet per second of water between March and May to support agriculture, power generation, and river management under increasing climate stress. Experts warn that such withdrawals could deepen water shortages in southwestern Bangladesh, where desertification is already affecting crops, fisheries, and biodiversity.
Bangladesh recently became the 56th party to the UN Convention on the Protection and Use of Transboundary Watercourses, committing to principles of equitable and reasonable use, transparency, and disaster preparedness. Adviser Rizwana Hasan has emphasized that both upper- and lower-riparian countries must adhere to international norms of water justice.
Sheikh Rokon, founding secretary general of Riverine People, a Dhaka-based civil society initiative focused on river issues, stressed that Bangladesh must operationalise its international commitments and avoid treating treaty renewal as a purely technical exercise.
As December 2026 approaches, analysts view the renewal of the Ganges Treaty as a defining test of Bangladesh’s diplomatic capacity, political resolve, and ability to safeguard downstream interests in a region increasingly affected by climate stress. Political commitment, timely negotiation, and a basin-wide perspective will be decisive in ensuring that shared rivers remain a source of life and cooperation rather than conflict.
Sohanur Rahman, executive coordinator of YouthNet Global, added, “Sustainable basin management and equitable water sharing are not just technical issues. They are essential for regional cooperation, climate resilience, and the livelihoods of millions. Bangladesh, India and Nepal must work together to ensure the Ganges basin delivers shared benefits for all riparian communities.”
