The report places fossil fuel expansion, climate finance and Pacific demands for a fair transition at the centre of scrutiny before the Antalya climate talks.
Campaigners demand coal phase-out deadlines and stronger climate finance for developing nations as a new report links bilateral coal trade to more than 75 million tonnes of COâ‚‚ emissions.
Australia and Türkiye are facing growing scrutiny over their fossil fuel policies ahead of COP31, as a new report reveals that coal trade between the two countries has been linked to more than 75 million tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions since the Paris Agreement was adopted in 2015.
The findings have intensified questions over the credibility of the two countries leading this year’s UN climate negotiations, with environmental campaigners accusing them of promoting international climate action while continuing to support coal and gas expansion at home.
COP31, scheduled for November 9-20 in Antalya, Türkiye, will be presided over by Türkiye, while Australia will lead the formal negotiations. The summit comes amid worsening climate disasters, volatile energy markets aggravated by the Iran war and mounting pressure on governments to deliver a fair and adequately financed transition away from fossil fuels.
Campaigners say the credibility of the summit will depend not only on international commitments but also on whether its leaders are willing to align their domestic energy policies with the Paris Agreement’s temperature goals.
Coal trade linked to 75 million tonnes of emissions
A report by international climate campaign group 350.org found that the coal supply chain linking Australia and Türkiye has been associated with more than 75 million tonnes of COâ‚‚ emissions since 2015.
The estimate, based on United Nations Comtrade data, concerns emissions associated with coal traded between the countries, rather than emissions generated by transporting coal alone. The report also highlights expanding commercial ties in liquefied natural gas, or LNG.
According to 350.org, Australia and Türkiye are among the few industrialised countries without national coal phase-out deadlines, despite their responsibilities under international climate agreements.
The organisation also criticised what it described as a significant omission from COP31’s preparations. It said official presidency communications and the summit’s Action Agenda, which contains 10 priorities and 50 subpriorities, do not explicitly mention fossil fuels.
Campaigners argue that the omission raises concerns about whether the negotiations will adequately address the primary source of greenhouse gas emissions.
Andreas Sieber, head of political strategy at 350.org, said the continued expansion of fossil fuel production by the countries leading COP31 undermined their international climate responsibilities.
He called on Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Turkish President Recep Tayyip ErdoÄŸan to establish national coal phase-out deadlines and ensure that the summit places the transition away from fossil fuels at the centre of negotiations.
The organisation also warned that Australia accounts for a substantial share of proposed global coal mining expansion, citing the country’s continued support for new coal projects and increased oil and gas production.
Australia’s coal approval sparks controversy
Australia’s climate leadership credentials have come under renewed scrutiny following the approval of a major coal mining extension in New South Wales.
On September 30, the state’s Independent Planning Commission approved the Hunter Valley Operations Continuation Project, allowing two existing open-cut coal mines to continue operating, one until 2042 and the other until 2045.
Environmental organisations have described the development as one of the largest coal mining expansion proposals in the state’s history.
According to the project’s environmental assessment, it could generate approximately 809 million tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions, measured in COâ‚‚-equivalent, including emissions from mining operations and coal burned overseas.
The project still requires federal environmental approval.
The commission acknowledged that the emissions would contribute to climate change but concluded that the employment, economic and social benefits justified conditional approval.
The conditions include requirements to reduce operational emissions, maximise renewable electricity use, manage emissions associated with exported coal and prepare for the eventual closure of the mines.
Environmental campaigners argue that allowing coal production to continue for nearly two more decades contradicts Australia’s stated ambition to become a clean energy leader.
Australia remains one of the world’s largest exporters of coal and LNG, making fossil fuel exports an important source of national income.
The country’s international climate finance contributions have also attracted criticism.
Climate Action Tracker, an independent scientific assessment initiative, rates Australia’s international public climate finance as “critically insufficient”, indicating that its contributions fall substantially short of what would constitute a fair share of global efforts to meet the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C objective.
Türkiye’s coal expansion raises similar concerns
Türkiye faces comparable questions about its commitment to reducing fossil fuel dependence.
According to energy research organisation Ember, Türkiye was Europe’s largest coal-fired electricity generator in 2025, with coal accounting for approximately 34 percent of its electricity supply.
Wind and solar power provided about 22 percent, reflecting substantial growth in renewable energy investment.
Despite this progress, Türkiye has not established a national coal phase-out deadline.
The country has pledged to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2053, but environmental groups say the commitment remains difficult to reconcile with plans for additional fossil fuel infrastructure.
Among the developments highlighted by 350.org is the proposed expansion of the CENAL coal-fired power plant in Karabiga, Çanakkale.
The proposal would add approximately 1,050 megawatts of generating capacity to the existing 1,320-megawatt facility, potentially extending Türkiye’s reliance on imported coal.
Climate campaigners warn that new coal infrastructure could lock in emissions for decades and increase exposure to fluctuations in international fuel prices.
Efe Baysal, Türkiye manager at 350.org, said the country’s growing renewable energy sector demonstrates that a cleaner energy pathway is possible.
He urged the government to halt new coal developments, establish a clear phase-out deadline and introduce a credible national strategy for moving beyond fossil fuels.
Energy analysts also argue that accelerating investment in domestic wind and solar power could strengthen Türkiye’s energy security, reduce reliance on imported coal and gas and protect households from volatile international energy markets.
UN warns of dangerous global warming
The controversy comes against an increasingly alarming scientific backdrop.
In September, the United Nations Environment Programme, or UNEP, warned that the world was on course to exceed the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C global warming threshold, increasing the risks of extreme weather, ecosystem degradation, rising seas and irreversible climate damage.
Its report, Limiting Overshoot: Navigating Exceedance of 1.5°C and Pathways Towards Return, emphasised the urgency of limiting the extent and duration of any temperature overshoot and returning global warming below 1.5°C as quickly as possible.
The report warned that delayed emissions reductions would make the challenge considerably more difficult and expose vulnerable populations to increasingly severe climate impacts.
Separately, UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report 2025 projected that existing government policies could result in approximately 2.8°C of global warming this century. Full implementation of countries’ climate pledges would reduce that projection to between 2.3°C and 2.5°C, still considerably above the Paris Agreement’s temperature goals.
Scientists warn that every additional fraction of a degree increases climate risks, particularly for small island developing states, low-lying coastal countries and communities already exposed to extreme weather.
At COP28 in Dubai in 2023, governments agreed for the first time to transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems in a just, orderly and equitable manner.
However, continued approval of new coal, oil and gas developments has raised questions about how countries intend to translate that historic commitment into action.
Pacific nations demand stronger commitments
The climate policies of Australia and Türkiye have also attracted criticism from Pacific island nations, many of which face growing threats from sea-level rise, coastal erosion and increasingly severe weather.
At the Pre-COP31 meetings held in Fiji and Tuvalu from October 5 to 8, Pacific leaders stressed the urgency of limiting global warming to 1.5°C and securing greater international financial support for adaptation.
The meetings brought together around 4,000 participants from more than 100 nations, including government representatives, scientists, civil society organisations and climate advocates.
Discussions focused on renewable energy, energy security, climate finance, ocean protection and the challenges facing small island developing states.
COP31 President Murat Kurum described limiting global warming to 1.5°C as a matter of survival for Pacific communities threatened by rising seas.
Australian Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen also reaffirmed his government’s commitment to ensuring that Pacific priorities receive greater attention during the Antalya negotiations.
However, environmental advocates argue that diplomatic commitments must be accompanied by concrete measures to reduce fossil fuel production and consumption.
Fenton Lutunatabua, Pacific and Caribbean manager at 350.org, criticised Australia’s continued support for coal and gas expansion, warning that it could undermine the country’s credibility among Pacific nations.
He said Australia had secured an important position in the COP31 negotiations with significant support from Pacific countries and must now demonstrate genuine climate leadership through clear commitments to phase out coal.
Pacific leaders have repeatedly argued that countries most responsible for historical greenhouse gas emissions must take the lead in reducing pollution while supporting vulnerable nations already experiencing the consequences of climate change.
At the Pre-COP meetings, representatives of around 30 countries endorsed the Taku Pakasoa Declaration, calling for deep and sustained emissions reductions and stronger international cooperation.
Climate finance emerges as major test
Financing a just transition away from fossil fuels is expected to become a central issue at COP31.
Developing countries argue that shifting towards renewable energy requires substantial international assistance, particularly where economies remain dependent on fossil fuels or lack affordable access to clean technologies.
Climate justice organisations are calling for increased grant-based finance, technology transfer and investment in renewable energy infrastructure to ensure that poorer nations are not pushed further into debt while responding to a crisis they contributed relatively little to creating.
Sohanur Rahman, Executive Coordinator of YouthNet Global, a Bangladesh-based youth-led climate justice organisation, said, “COP31 cannot deliver climate justice while its leaders expand fossil fuels. For Bangladesh and other vulnerable nations, we need clear phase-out timelines, grant-based finance and a just transition that protects workers and communities.”
Climate advocates also insist that the transition must protect communities whose livelihoods depend on coal, oil and gas.
This includes investment in alternative industries, skills development, social protection and decent employment opportunities, alongside meaningful participation by affected communities in decisions about their economic future.
The financial challenge was highlighted during the Pacific Pre-COP meetings, where Australia launched an Access to Finance Statement and Action Plan aimed at reducing barriers that prevent vulnerable communities from receiving international climate funding.
According to information released through the UN climate process, more than $16 billion in climate finance has been committed to Pacific countries since the Paris Agreement, but over $5 billion remains undisbursed.
The figures have reinforced concerns that international financial commitments are not reaching vulnerable communities quickly enough to address escalating climate risks.
COP31 leaders promote global electrification
Despite mounting criticism, Australia and Türkiye have presented clean energy expansion, electrification and stronger international cooperation as important priorities for COP31.
In June, Türkiye’s COP31 presidency announced a target to increase the share of global final energy demand met by electricity from just over 20 percent to 35 percent by 2035.
The initiative aims to accelerate electrification across major sectors of the economy, including transport, buildings and industry, helping reduce dependence on fossil fuels as electricity generation becomes cleaner.
The target concerns electricity’s share of overall energy consumption, rather than the proportion of electricity generated from renewable sources.
Türkiye has also outlined priorities relating to energy efficiency, green industrialisation, waste reduction and climate-resilient cities.
Australia, meanwhile, has emphasised expanding renewable energy, improving access to climate finance and strengthening cooperation with Pacific nations.
Bowen has argued that the partnership between Australia and Türkiye provides an opportunity to deliver practical outcomes from international climate negotiations.
Kurum has similarly stressed the importance of moving beyond climate pledges towards implementation, particularly as countries face mounting economic and environmental pressures.
Both governments have also highlighted the importance of energy security, a concern that has gained urgency amid disruptions to global oil and gas markets.
However, environmental campaigners argue that expanding clean energy alone will not be sufficient if governments simultaneously approve new coal, oil and gas projects.
They want COP31 to establish credible national transition roadmaps, clear coal phase-out deadlines, stronger accountability mechanisms and predictable financial support for developing economies.
Fossil fuel transition puts COP31 leadership to the test
The growing pressure on Australia and Türkiye reflects a wider challenge facing international climate negotiations.
Although governments have repeatedly committed to accelerating clean energy investment and reducing emissions, many major fossil fuel-producing countries continue to support projects that could remain operational for decades.
Climate campaigners argue that the absence of clear national phase-out deadlines creates uncertainty over how the global transition away from fossil fuels will be implemented.
They also warn that delaying the transition could increase future economic disruption as climate impacts intensify and fossil fuel markets become more volatile.
For developing countries, particularly those in Asia, Africa and the Pacific, the outcome of COP31 could have significant implications for future access to climate finance, renewable energy investment and support for communities exposed to worsening climate impacts.
The question is whether governments can agree on practical measures that combine faster emissions reductions with energy security, economic development and social protection.
As COP31 approaches, pressure is mounting on Australia and Türkiye to demonstrate that their climate commitments extend beyond the negotiating table.
For vulnerable nations seeking stronger emissions cuts and greater financial support, the credibility of the Antalya summit may depend on whether its leaders are prepared to confront fossil fuel expansion at home.
