Turkey is poised to take over as host of next year’s UN climate summit (COP31) after Australia signalled it will withdraw from the long-running contest, easing a diplomatic standoff that has overshadowed talks in Belém.
The shift follows years of deadlock within the Western Europe and Others Group, which failed to reach consensus on a venue. Australia had campaigned to bring a “Pacific COP” to Adelaide in partnership with island nations, arguing it would elevate frontline voices. Several Pacific leaders publicly backed the bid.
Turkey countered with a proposal for Antalya, presenting itself as a bridge between wealthy and developing nations. Ankara insisted it was ready to lead a more inclusive global conversation, a message reinforced by senior officials in Belém.
With neither side willing to retreat, negotiators explored unusual options, including joint leadership, before Canberra ultimately ruled out a shared presidency. The impasse dragged on until this week, when Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced his country would not obstruct Turkey’s path.
Australia has now dropped its bid entirely and suggested holding a separate leaders’ gathering in the Pacific region alongside the Turkish-hosted summit. Officials said the concession was intended to end a distracting dispute as pressure mounts for progress on climate finance and emissions.
A Turkish COP would hand President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan a diplomatic victory and give Antalya a central role in shaping the next phase of global climate action. Ankara has hinted it may still highlight Pacific concerns through dedicated sessions.
Failure to resolve the issue in Belém would send the meeting to the UN’s headquarters in Bonn, a fallback option neither Germany nor negotiators favour.
Environmental groups expressed mixed views, saying the loss of a Pacific-themed COP would be disappointing but urging negotiators to settle the matter quickly. Analysts warned the episode exposes deeper strains in global climate diplomacy, where battles over hosting can overshadow the urgency of the crisis.
Ministers from both countries are expected to meet in Belém in the coming days as diplomatic efforts intensify ahead of a formal announcement.
